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In case you didn't know, we are in week 3 of Apple's 4 week hype cycle.

Here is how it works (mostly):

Week 1 - Getting close to the 'usual' time of year for a hardware refresh, an outlandish rumor from 'sources familiar with the plans' at Apple appear on the Mac web. This sends people into a flurry of typing and posting on message boards about how awesome rumored things would be or how stupid the idea is. Mostly being dismissed as crazy, within 3 days this is nothing but last weeks news.

Week 2 - Tuesday morning Cupertino time, some more and usually corroborating along with a new but related rumors surface - Kevin Rose for example may come up with some pearl of wisdom based on 'inside' information. Most of the big Apple blogs pick up the news and things start to get crazy. Mockups begin appearing on flickr, spy shots, screen shots even 'leaked' event invites, they all start coming out of the wood work. Mid-week the fire is spreading rapidly and reports wash up daily with little bits of information. Some end up being true, some not. A full week of furious speculation and chatter, but little solid information. It's all hype, but the Mac web is well ablaze with activity.

Week 3 - (This week) By Monday, almost anyone who cares is in a right lather. Then the music stops. Things go deathly quiet on the weekend and Monday is the calm before the storm
(also happens to be a holiday in the US this time around, which fits in nicely). Tuesday morning, usually first thing, before anyone else has a chance to steal the focus the event invites get sent (for the following Tuesday) and the fire gets a big helping of something flammable. A cryptic tag (One more thing..., There's something in the Air, The beat goes on...etc) and a nice looking graphic which is about to spend a week being pulled to pieces by anyone and everyone to find the secret hidden meaning. LOTS of speculation ensues.

Week 4 - It's Showtime! The fire rages over the weekend and into Week 4, right up to the moment the event starts. Usually at Apple's HQ, Steve Jobs takes the stage to show off the expected and sometimes unexpected from the crazy ones at Cupertino.

This is where, of late we have noticed a subtle change, let me explain.

Rewind back to February 2008, the day before Macworld 2008 - Week 4 in the cycle. Apple's stock price was $178. During the keynote, Steve Jobs announced several new hardware devices, one of which was the Macbook Air. In the tech world, some loved it and some hated it but one thing was for sure, it was a product designed to make a splash. On design, on price and on the 'idea'. There is no hiding from the numbers, by the 16th, just two days later the stock price had tumbled to $159. You can see by the graph that the price continued to slide until mid-March, so what gives?

Apple had made one mistake, surprisingly, one they had made many times before - the hype machine got out hyped. The expectation got to such lofty heights that no matter what Apple delivered it wouldn't have been enough.

Move forward to WWDC 2008 and again Steve Jobs took the stage, this time with the launch of the iPhone App Store, iPhone 2.0 OS and introduction of 'Snow Leopard' - the next major version of OS X. Not quite the standard set at Macworld with two new products and a big update to Apple TV, yet the stock remained fairly steady in otherwise shaky economic times.
Less to be excited about but almost no hit to the company? How can that be?

Apple learnt that the hype machine is a valuable weapon but it's also a double-edged sword.
The proof is easy to see, in the lead up to WWDC the expectation was no where in the vicinity of Macworld. People didn't expect much and they got what they expected - At Macworld the expectation was SO huge that even a huge announcement wasn't enough.

Make no mistake, we know exactly what Apple want us to know - they are setting the expectation to a level at or below what they plan to deliver.
When Apple does leak, things get messy...ThinkSecret? Gone. They got in too close and wound up with a Apple Legal roundhouse kick to the face.

People who think that Apple is growing leaky might want to thing again.

Zillatron

Way back when we wrote the original Super Software article, we spoke about how providing a way to buy software though the iTunes store was just around the corner. We also talked about how this was a new way of providing users with functionality and Apple a way to maintain control over the platform.

Not only have Apple delivered what we expected, but it has been a gigantic success with Steve Jobs recently stating that in the first month, about $30 million of apps had been sold and many hundreds of thousands of downloads. Only time will tell if that pace will continue, but one thing is for sure - this new platform has created a mechanism for developers unlike anything ever seen in the mobile software space.

The ability to deliver directly the the device isn't exactly new. Many telcos and software houses have been letting people download games directly to users handsets for years. The problem has always been around the quality, price and usability of mobile apps (ever played Tetris on a number pad? hmmm). Apple trashed the existing model and turned buying software into a trivial task - it has it's quirks though, there have been quite a few apps fall though the cracks of the QA testers along with issues of stability on the iPhone OS. These are temporary conditions, it won't be long before the bugs are ironed out, look at the pace of updates already.

I'd say we hit the money here, there really is some super software out there...available right now, in your pocket.

Zillatron

Four very interesting things have happened since the release of the iPhone:

1) Apple announce lock-in deal with AT&T
2) Apple announce a web based pretend SDK for iPhone
3) Apple notice that the US mobile phone industry is different from everywhere else and quietly announce they are not 'married' to the one carrier model
4) Apple notice most people noticed that a web SDK just isn't going to cut it and make a real SDK.

The first two are interesting in that most people were surprised by the choices that Apple made - personally I can see the merit in the single carrier model, for the companies, not the consumer. With hindsight, this is really the only way to break in to this market (tick for Apple - clearly a success so far). I can also see the merit in the web SDK model, again with hindsight as my trusty ally it's obvious why they went this way. Zero cost, zero effort, zero exposure. It was a no brainer, but it was still wrong.

If history can teach us anything about how Apple works, it can teach us that no matter what happens - Apple always spin the right way. Case in point is AppleTV Take 2 - They thought they had a winner on their hands and it didn't go to plan, a little 'hobby' here, a pinch of stacking with iPod sales there, add some 'We listened to our customers', BOOM and we have AppleTV Take 2 but Apple come out smelling sweet.

Point 3 and 4 are classic examples of this exact masterful spin that make Apple so interesting to watch.

Once Apple was in shiny-happy-land with the iPhone in the US, they decided it might be time to start addressing the whole '10 million sales', '1% of the market' thing. So they hopped on a plane to Europe and started talking American to Telcos who only spoke 'rest of the world' with limited success. On the plane back to Apple HQ, Steve and Phil were chatting about how marketing phones just isn't the same as iPods and they might have to start to Think Different.

Turns out that some of the telcos played nice but in some countries, there were laws against that kind of crazy long term lock-in business in others - but Apple still found a way to make it work. Casually dismissing the single carrier model was as simple as Tim Cook brushing off a question in a conference call. But that's all it took - it was picked up by everyone that mattered, simple and effective, "scrolls like butter".
In point 1 it was the only way, in point 3 it was just another way.

By the time we got to March 2008, Apple was about to deliver on number 4 in dramatic fashion - delivering the SDK the masses were demanding. When Scott Forstall described the iPhone OS as 'the most advanced platform for mobile devices' the transformation from potential orphan to mobile platform was complete.

Four easy steps to turn mistakes into magic, if you ever needed any proof that Apple was knows exactly what they are doing - this has to be it.

The iPhone was in very real danger of being stuck in a very American problem but Apple not only had the wisdom, they had the guts to make the hard decisions when they needed to be made. The success of the iPhone and the future of their mobile platform depended on it.

With WWDC08 only 3 sleeps away and some large hurdles overcome, we can't wait to see where too next for the iPhone!

Zillatron

Weeks have passed and the dust has settled on the latest bomb dropped by Steve Jobs and Apple, the Macbook Air. This isn't just another ultra-portable laptop. Apple is pursuing yet another interface revolution. If you didn't believe it when the iPhone/iPod touch were released, you should now.

While people were complaining that the solitary USB port stopped them from buying the Air, we looked into what the Air does have, Multi-Touch. Apple left out 'debatable' features like a built in DVD drive, lots of USB ports, firewire and weight but didn't sacrifice on everyday important things like screen real-estate, a real keyboard and now Multi-Touch. The future is available today (ok, 2-3weeks) for those who want it.

After the launch of the iPhone everyone realised that the lack of stylus and hardware keys were a requirement in creating a more adaptive user interface. Apple now appear more than prepared to bring touch to the Mac and the Air is the first step down that path. Although the native OS X interface is built around the more traditional keyboard and mouse, it wont be long before we see Apples team of interface designers bring more of the iPhone to the proverbial big screen.

Coverflow, Quick Look, Stacks and Time Machine all show signs of Apple searching for the right formula to make this the next big 'transition'. Getting Ma and Pa average to feel comfortable with a mouse didn't happen overnight but now you'd wonder where we would be without it. Multi-Touch is starting this all over again, helping the Mac evolve in two ways: 

- Making the human-computer interface less visible by making it more 'natural'.
- Making the computer work more like you think, hiding more of the computer behind a less visible but smarter and more intuitive interface.

The Air is currently the only full size Mac that supports Multi-Touch outside the 'two-finger scrolling' generation of notebooks, this makes it unique and important. Showing OS X is up to the task of driving the latest hardware innovations is only the beginning. It proves Apple know the ideas that made the iPod such a phenomenal success help drive the future of their products, building a base off the original iMac, the iPod was born. Building a base of the iPod, the iPhone was born. The next generation of Mac's will bring this full circle and build off the iPhone and Multi-touch.

We wonder how flexible the hardware and firmware behind the new touchpads are. Can they only report the expanded set of gestures currently supported by Apple apps or can they be used by third party vendors to support an expanded set of gestures?

There is something in the Air...and it's not just a fancy touch pad. 

Zillatron and Broadmier

It's an unusual beast Apple TV. Most people think it's missing a TV-tuner, some say it should have a DVD drive. Then there are lots of people that say it's missing lots of different abilities.

In some ways, they all have a point. Sure, a TV-tuner would make it a more 'normal' set-top-box and a DVD drive would make it more attractive to Ma and Pa Average. And yes, we agree that the ability to play a boatload of video formats would make it more attractive to the 'tech-savvy pro-sumer'. But...That's not what Apple TV is about.

There has been dozens of attempts at media PC's and set-top-boxes in the past (and even now), but all suffer from similar problems:
- Feature bloat
- Clunky Interface
- Compulsory Technical Know-how

Apple TV is tightly integrated with iTunes, just like your iPod. In fact, it IS an iPod...for your TV.
The TV-tuner issue is a moot point, watching and recording live broadcast TV is the past. Apple know this, they have the means to distribute content on a large scale and now they have the device to bring it straight to your lounge room. It appears that it's never been Apple's intent to give people an easy way to do what they do already TV - this is a 'mind-set' changing device.

Change the way people get their entertainment by providing a simple, easy to use device and 'normal' TV seems like it's from the stone age.

The DVD drive is also a non-issue. You don't put music onto your iPod with a CD, why should you be able to put movies on Apple TV with a DVD? More to the point, why provide something that you already have? Apple want you to BUY movies and TV shows though iTunes. Having said that, Apple make no effort to help you put movies from a DVD into iTunes directly - but they don't stop you either.

Apple TV is a stealth bomber in every sense - It's flying under the radar as people continue to ignore it yet, it carries a motherload of potential as it has executed a single handed removal of the big issues that plague other set-top boxes:

- Straight forward feature-set with fully upgradeable software platform to allow more features to be added later.
- Simple, elegant interface that even my mother can use.
- Anyone that has setup a TV before will more than manage plugging in one HDMI cable, not to mention the already familiar (iPod-like) way Apple TV integrates into iTunes.

Of course, in a perfect world were everything you want is on the iTunes Store, Apple TV is an invaluable device. But...Apple don't have everything they need on the iTunes store (look at Australia for example). So if my mum wants to put her favorite show on to Apple TV, or in iTunes...well...I do it for her. But for the more technically proficient of us, it's far from a big effort. I'd be more than happy to pay for the convince of being able to download and watch TV shows and movies at my leisure - but that's another post entirely.

We agree, Apple TV has a way to go before it has as tightly integrated experience as the iPod. But the device is very well executed for what it's supposed to be, and iPod for your TV.

Zillatron & Broadmier

We've already made the connection between having a hard drive in a tablet and 
a bad user experience. We believe that a proper tablet computing experience can't 
be created by simply 'adding' a touch or handwriting recognition layer to an existing 
desktop operating system. 

Software for a tablet computer requires a different interface to software for a desktop or laptop. 
The tablet software can't rely on accurate position inputs, it typically runs on a smaller display
and access to a keyboard is such a problem that it should be used only for text entry and even 
then only if it is absolutely necessary. 

The concept of a file browser (like Finder) as we understand it simply doesn't work on a small display. 
A file browser running on a tablet computer can't rely on the user being able to read a long list of filenames 
or accurately select a filename from that list. What is needed is a way for the user to select a document 
based on its content, without reading a filename.

What is needed is a graphical representation of the contents and a way to select a document using broad, 
simple gestures.

What you need is Cover Flow. It's perfect for the job, it already exists and if you have an iPhone or iPod Touch 
you're already using it on a tablet computer. 

What you need is a way to display the contents of a variety of file types, that's fast, simple and built right into
the OS - Movies, photos and music are already handled on iPods. A tablet needs to be able to show the contents
of word processor documents, spreadsheets and things we haven't thought of yet. 
It needs a way for developers to tell Cover Flow how to display a preview of a document. 

What you need is Quick Look. It's perfect for the job, it already exists and you're going to be using it on a tablet computer. 

Quick Look allows you to view the content of files without loading the editor application. The editor application may 
not even be installed, you won't have a hard drive so you'll have to pick what you need. Quick Look enables application
developers to provide plug-ins to represent their documents on the tablet. 

Overkill technology for Finder on traditional OS X, perfectly suited for a tablet computer. 
Quick Look is small, it can fit into flash memory and leave plenty to spare for your content. 
It is fast because it doesn't need to load an application to display a document, so it doesn't need a power hungry processor. 
And because of this it even saves on power, it allows the tablet to run for longer on a cheaper, smaller battery.

Quick Look and Cover Flow will replace Finder and provide 90% of the functionality users need from a full-size OS X installation, 
right in your pocket. 

Cover Flow and Quick Look will work together with Multi-Touch in Apple's next generation of mobile computers to provide the user 
with the perfect interface - and in two years time, you'll wonder how it could have been any other way.

Broadmier and Zillatron

edit: Thanks to one of our readers for pointing out that its Quick LOOK not VIEW. We'll try not to rush so much next time!!
Thanks.
Z

If there is one thing mobile carries and Apple have in common it is that they both are good at control and making profits. What happens when two companies that excel in these areas clash on terms for a product release? 
We don't know the full story, but what we do know paints a picture that isn't as pretty as you would expect for what is a enormous product for Apple.

Originally, we speculated that carriers would clamour to be the 'one' in each respective country that Apple was to sell iPhone. However, it appears that even stellar sales in the USA can't give Apple the edge they need to muscle in on the carriers.

But why? Presumably these companies WANT to sell the iPhone, surely they want in on the huge sales that will come from it. Apple know this. Apple know that where ever they make the device available, there will be hordes waiting to hand over their money.

The iPod business model is fantastic, but the carriers do NOT have the same problems the music and film industry has. Apple can muscle them around because there is simply no other way to compete on all the levels iPod/iTunes forces you too. Yes, iPhone is going to be big. But me, as a carrier, I already have 5 other phone manufactures that are happy to play ball the way I want. Why do I need Apple? Sure they are a cool brand and I'm going to get millions of new customers from this one device. Why do I need to bend and stretch for them and then have them take a big chunk of my 'safe' monthly subscription revenue? I already control this arena, the profits are mine.

Verizon weren't game enough, AT&T saw the light. But by all reports they have taken a big hit on contract profits to accommodate Apple's demands. It's paid off for them in a huge way with people switching to AT&T just to get iPhone, as expected. Although we didn't see it early on, this has always been a gamble for Apple. About 6 months before the iPhone was launched, we guess that it became obvious that deployment was going to be a difficult, uphill battle. By this time though, they had past the point of no return. 

Keeping in mind the relatively slow uptake of the iPhone by new carriers (take France and now Canada as examples) and the limits placed on iPhone sales by the telcos that have already signed up, the number of iPhones Apple COULD sell if the device was carrier independent and the virtual guarantee of stellar sales on the iPod Touch - the future is getting pulled in every direction except the right one. 

Apple created a baseline when they signed on with AT&T, this committed them to creating similar lock-in deals in the global market. It's impossible to sell an unlocked phone in other countries while locking contracts still exist in others, this is far from ideal. The danger in this situation is the iPhone could become increasingly isolated as a product compared to similar technology in like the iPod touch and our predicted Multi-Touch Mac which can be sold, unlimited by third parties. 

We hope it isn't, but it just might be - the most successful orphan, ever.

Zillatron and Broadmier

It's been a few years now since the release of the first iPods
without a hard drive.  When the iPod mini was first released we
thought of them as a nice option for those that needed something
really small and didn't mind sacrificing some functionality.  If you
were serious about your music you wouldn't want to be caught without
all of it on you, would you?

Somewhere along the way that perception changed, now the only iPod
that sports a hard drive is called the 'classic', a nice way of
saying it's considered outdated, on the way out.

Part of the reason we changed the way we view the flash iPods is
their increase in storage capacity, those gigabytes make a difference.
Some may argue that 16Gb doesn't compare to a 160Gb hard disk, but
that's not the whole story.

We believe there's something else, in the last few years we've been
educated to trust in the technologies that select and manage the media on our
portable devices. We have smart playlists, iTunes manages our pod-casts and our content
is synchronised automatically.  It just works, we can trust it.

The difference between all of your data and what you need to take with
you is becoming more obvious.  The USB key has shown us how little we
really need  with us.  The few documents you're working on, some reference 
materials, that's all we need to continue our projects.  The rest we fill up 
with photos and old files that we haven't got around to deleting.

So how does this fit in with the Multi-Touch Mac?  It shows that it
doesn't need a hard drive.

The Multi-Touch Mac will be a bridging device, it won't carry everything
you have, just what you need.  It will let you be productive when you're
between bases.  On the train, waiting for the kids, in a meeting.  As
soon as you get back home you will plug it in and it will recharge
and update its content. The last twenty documents you've worked on, and those
you've marked as favourites, will be synchronised automatically.  You won't have to
think about it. It will just work, you'll trust it.

The hard drive is not needed, in fact, we believe the hard drive is
one of the main reasons previous attempts at a tablet computer have
failed.

A hard drive makes the computer larger. Hard drives are small but the
extra battery power required to run them means an increase in the size
of the battery, accompanied by a significant increase in price.  A
hard drive makes power management more challenging, keep it running
all the time and power is wasted, shut it down often and spinning it up
when needed will use up even more power and make the computer seem
slow.  It makes the computer fragile and it adds weight.

When a tablet has a hard drive it's tempting to put a full operating
system on it, after all, if a tablet can run a desktop operating
system then it can run all the desktop software a user needs.  All
you need is to emulate the mouse with a touch screen add some
handwriting recognition and that's the end of it!
Right? Wrong. Now you have two problems.  You've got an oversized,
fragile computer with a short battery life and you have software that
doesn't fit they way people want to use a tablet.

Hard drives and tablet computing don't mix.  The Multi-Touch Mac
won't have a hard drive and in two years time you'll wonder how it
could have been any other way.

Broadmier and Zillatron

This is another one of those things that Apple has snuck in and done before anyone knew what was going on.

When the iPhone was released with Wi-Fi, Apple touted its speed and power efficiency over 3G as its choice for high speed network connectivity when the EDGE network was not available.

What this does for the iPhone is great, it allows you high speed access to mail and web browsing, at home or whenever you are in range of a hot-spot.

When the iPod touch was announced, it also came with Wi-Fi, but what for? Its an iPod, right? Yep. But then there is always 'One more thing...'!
Apple again flexes it muscles and pushes the envelope on content delivery. The idea is simple, walk into your nearest Starbucks and hear a song you like...as Steve Jobs would say - 'BOOM' , you can download that song right from your iPod/iPhone. Along with that, the Wi-Fi iTunes store now gives you access to the 'normal' iTunes store, right from your iPod.

But why is this so important?
As usual, it right under our noses. You can already download games for your iPod from the iTunes store, along with music, podcasts and all sorts of video, the next step is software.

A large part of the appeal of the iTunes store is its simple purchase mechanism. Now that it has been simplified for use on the Multi-Touch platform, it's perfect for buying and installing applications for your iPhone/iPod to compliment the standard applications you get out of the box.

Take the YouTube application for the current iPhone/iPod, Apple has taken something that people do a LOT and created a very simple interface. Why not a Facebook or MySpace application? It may not be important to us, it may not be big enough for Apple to include out of the box, but it would be great if you really wanted that functionality. If for a few dollars you could buy that application from iTunes and expand your device? BOOM.

Not only does it create the basis of a 3rd party development ecosystem (not the stop-gap Web 2.0 we have now), but it also allows Apple to control what is made available though the delivery system, THEIR delivery system. So the developers are mostly happy because they can develop Applications for the new platform. Apple is happy because they get control over the delivery and quality of the applications and functionality available to the users. The users are happy because they get extra functionality and extra applications.

With the iPhone and iPod touch Apple are introducing people to a new way of people-machine interaction and a new way of buying content, software and functionality.

Zillatron & Broadmier

The iPhone and iPod Touch hold all your favourite photos, their dock
guarantees that they will be sitting on your desk, facing you most of
the day.

They have nice, big color screens and are idle the majority of the time.

Doesn't it make sense to everyone but Apple, that they NEED to show
you those photos after they've been idle for a few minutes?  They
should automatically start a slideshow of the photos stored in an
album called 'Favourites' or 'Docked' when they have been on the dock
for a few minutes.

In an ideal world the user could define their own 'Ken Burns' effects
like they can with iMovie.

What we've described isn't a huge change, its not going to sell
millions of multi-touch devices, but we think it would be a valuable
and interesting feature.

If there was a software ecosystem supporting multi-touch, these
'computer-putty' devices could reach their full potential.

Broadmier and Zillatron

Since the iPhone was released, there has been talk that Apple may be in the market to revive the Newton. As
recently as last week, Appleinsider have been pedaling the most recent incarnation of the rumor. A week prior to that we
had discussed this very thing - but you'll just have to take our word for it

This is one of those 'Where to next?' conversations where everything starts to make sense. You can see the whole picture,
not just pieces of the puzzle. When AppleTV was announced, Steve Jobs explained the direction Apple was heading with media
in the home and in your pocket.

- iMac in your office.
- iPod in your pocket and car
- AppleTV in your living room

It paints a very simple picture of how Apple is aiming squarely at content distribution. You can retrieve your content, anywhere you want.
Now with the iPod touch and iPhone, you can buy content on the move, not just from your desk. This move further extends the reach of the iTunes store, making it not only a music and video platform but by stealth (through iPod games) a software purchase platform aswell.

This push to morph iTunes from a simple jukebox application to a integrated content distribution system should be scaring traditional software houses, they are already getting left behind. Just like the music and movie industry. Most people didn't understand the plan with iPod (arguably, neither did Apple), but these are now roads well travelled - the iPod business model works and the iPhone is doing it all over again.

iTunes is only one piece of the puzzle.

We think there is one product missing from Apple's current line-up, one that fits perfectly between the iPhone and Macbook.
That product is a multi-touch Mac.

'No!' I hear you say, 'Microsoft have been pedalling tablet PC's for years and they never got anywhere!' - we agree!
Not because we think they are a bad idea, they aren't. The single biggest hindrance to the tablet PC form factor has always been the interface and the hardware that its based on.

The Multi-Touch interface provides a method of interaction unrivaled in mobile electronics, the genius of Multi-Touch is not so much the hardware (although impressive) but the way you can interact directly with the software. Making the interaction so basic (by NOT using a keyboard and mouse) brings the device to the masses on a scale not seen since the iPod (click-wheel) and the original Mac (bitmap display/mouse).

Apple have a knack for solving problems with technology and not creating technology then trying to find a problem to solve with it - Multi-Touch epitomises this by providing a solution to a problem that most people take for granted. It's so simple, that it prompts cries of 'why didn't I think of that?' when you see it and draws 'ooh's' and 'ahh's' when you use it.

They cracked the code that was holding back the tablet PC, a Multi-Touch based Mac for the masses is coming. It's just a matter of time.

With the iPhone, we see a device that has converged some functions from a laptop, a phone and ipod. This is a major milestone in the world of portable electronic devices. Like the iPod, iPhone paves the way for 'smart' devices. The iPod's mass production has allowed Apple to push the envelope on price and on technology for years. Driving the price of memory, cpu's and LCD's down though sheer volume and allowing them the flexibly to create breakthrough devices like iPhone - now you know it's possible, I bet you wouldn't have believed how far ahead the iPhone technology was to be if someone told you 12 months before it was announced.

So Apple have the hardware and the software to make it happen, they have shown they can deliver content directly to your device though the Wi-Fi iTunes store. The board is set and the pieces are moving.

Zillatron and Brodmier